The most eagerly unanticipated part of the season is here. The first International break is upon us. Who watches international football anymore??? This season was unlike last season. Most managers got off to a great start , the big guns delivered. Most strategies worked well minus a few surprises. The only upside in this break in ‘real’ football for the ‘real’ fans is that we can reassess our FPL teams.
This post will only talk about the players who have scored 2 or more goals. There is a ton of information out there so I feel no need to go over all the other players, fixture ease etc. We know that players can have a run of good form and that can produce good FPL returns. Remember Ighalo and Vardy last season? I sold Ighalo just before he went on a red hot run. End of the season no surprises my team finished second to the team that had Ighalo!
To begin lets look at the players who have scored 2 or more goals.
Zlatan – 3
Aguero – 3
Defoe, Sterling , Nolito , Capoue??!, Costa, Hazard, Fer, Antonio, Stuani and Coutinho have 2 each.
Why look only at goals?
We now know there are dozens of stats out there. If you have read this blog before you would know about them. But if you want to make it simple? Why do bandwagons occur when players score? Well if you look at only goals scored and nothing else its reasonable to expect another goal. The form matters ! The probability is not the same as other stats but its not something we can discard either. So now lets look at each player.
The forward from Man City is priced at 13.1m . He is the costliest player on the list and is owned by 49.8%. That is one in every 2 teams have him. Even now with the ban looming. At the time of writing , Man City are contesting the ban but it looks like he will be out for 3 games. If you look at the picture above you will see Aguero is literally a cut above the rest. No wonder City and FPL fans are in meltdown.
13 Shots in Box (SiB) and 5 Shots on Target(SoT) mean the underlying stats back him. City are one of the top 3 attacking teams as suggested by @PeterBlake. They have over 50 shots in 3 games and no wonder 3 of their players are on this list. All this suggests Aguero is a must have to me.
Verdict: If you have him ,then HOLD
If not get him after the BAN.
The giant Swede really has hit the floor running. Underlying stats are a mixed bag though. 8 Sib and 4 Sot suggest that the finishing genie has smiled on him. But then again isn’t that what elite players do? They make the chances count. Ibra is just coming off a goal fest of a season in Ligue 1 and looks set to continue that.He has already risen to 11.7 and finds himself in 57.5% OF FPL TEAMS! That just took me by surprise. He is owned more than Aguero! The flurry of managers dumping Aguero could be jumping on the Ibra bandwagon and his price could go up. Omit him at your peril.
Decent stats, reasonable fixtures, good form and assured starts. All this at 1.4m lesser than Aguero…
If you don’t have him yet, please tell me you know something I don’t.
Hazard scoring again must have felt like a long lost friend giving us a call when we felt lonely. Something just feels so right when an old favourite is back to form. You don’t feel the same? Maybe I take this game too seriously.
10.2 m and rising the Chelsea midfielder is in 29.5% of teams. They have 4 very favourable fixtures coming up. The presence of Kante and Matic seems to have freed him from some defensive responsibilities and he is reaping the rewards. His average position is parallel and sometimes ahead of Diego Costa. 7 Sib and 6 Sot shows the process is good too.
Verdict:GET HIM IN NOW!
2 goals from 7 Sib and 5 Sot means he is also rejuvenated under Conte. The reasons for his upturn are not clear but could just be the fact he is an out and out forward now. Hazard and Willian attacking down the wings is clearly helping him. he is priced at 9.6 though and that seems steep compared to Hazard. Don’t forget Hazard will benefit from Clean sheets and gets an extra point for every goal scored.
This is a tough one.
Verdict : Would recommend Hazard over him but if you are seeking a differential , look no further.
The Liverpool midfielder began with a bang getting a brace against the Gunners. Has not added to his tally since but definitely will be a matter of time before he starts scoring.
6 Sib and 6 SoT mean he certainly has a goal threat. Their fixtures though don’t look good. A caveat though is 30% of teams have him. So if he has a great game and you don’t have him expect some red arrows.
Verdict:Wait till fixtures get better
Stuani and Fer
Bunched these two together cause it was simpler. Both have 2 goals apiece from very few shots. Stuani has 2 SiB and 3 SoT. Karanka seems to prefer rotation. He is in only 4.6% of teams so you are not missing out on much. Negredo is the preferred option up front.
Fer has 4 SiB and 2 SoT. That’s right he has 2 goals from 2 SoT. Not sustainable. Priced at 5.2m he is in 8.8% of teams. More than Stuani but the Swans have tough fixtures ahead.
Verdict: Only Monitor
Now this is a head scratcher.Price is 8.2m now. Rapidly rising and could rise further before GW4. Sterling looks like a 50 million pound player again. A key point here is he had great stats from last season too. He was just not finishing properly.You can see him exactly at the middle of the picture though. He has been finishing better than the metrics suggest. 5 Sib and 3 SoT. Wont be explosive but is the cheapest route into a City midfield that is looking real ‘Pep’ped up. 9.1 % of teams have him.
Verdict: Get him if you need Man City cover.
Nolito does one thing well and that is score goals. 4 Sib and 2 Sot. No support from underlying metrics and not assured of playing time. Pep favours rotation. I don’t see his value in a regular FPL team over Sterling.
Verdict: Sterling is better
At first glance he seems like a bad option. Stats are identical to Fer .They both share a spot on our graph in the unhealthy corner. Antonio is in the top for headed goals in 2016. Payet is coming back and this can only mean better set piece delivery.
He is priced at 7m though and thats a bit costly as he could play right back now and then. West Ham do have good favourable fixtures upcoming. They were a good attacking team last season and could continue that trajectory.
Verdict: If you have him HOLD, if not Monitor
Defoe and Capoue
We finish off with 2 guys who are in blazing form right now.
Defoe has 7 Sib and 5 Sot. Januzaj is definitely looking like a threat and that can only help Defoe. He is the penalty taker too and is only in 9.6 % of teams. Their fixtures are unclear and at 7.1m he is dearer than Gray who seems to be the 3 rd Fwd of choice. Negredo also is 6.9m. Defoe though has pedigree and he was instrumental in their survival last year.
Capoue was highlighted in preseason as playing a more advanced role and he has not let us down. 2 goals from just 3 Sib and 3 SoT mean he won’t deliver regular returns though. Tough upcoming fixtures. They aren’t keeping clean sheets.
But, BUT he is only 4.7m and is in 20% of teams already.Ignore him at your peril.
Verdict: Good options for 3rd Fwd and 5th midfielder.
Hope this helped , as always I’m available on twitter @FplDraft.